By Trent Crebbin
The final Group 1 of the Australian calendar takes place at Eagle Farm on Saturday.
There are two clear paths for the majority of Group 1 Tatt's Tiara over 1400 metre winners. The past two, Startantes and Tofane, came through the Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap over 1400 metres, with Tofane doing the double. The three before that came through the Group 2 Dane Ripper Stakes also over 1400 metres for mares, with Invincibella doing the double.
A typical Tiara winner rates around the 114 mark with Timeform. Tofane was a fair bit better than that and rated a pound down on her Stradbroke victory, but she was already a Group 1 winner, of which just one horse in this field can lay claim to.
That filly is Ruthless Dame, who took out the Group 1 Sangster Stakes over 1200 metres two starts back running to 114, and matched that rating in the Stradbroke, beaten 2.6 lengths by Think About It.
Of the horses in this field, just three come through the Stradbroke, and they finished fourth, fifth and sixth, with the margins reading 0.3 lengths and 0.1 lengths. Palaisipan ($91, 52kg) edged out Ruthless Dame ($12, 52.5kg) and Chain Of Lightning ($31, 52kg).
Ruthless Dame meets Palaisipan and Chain of Lightning two kgs better at Weight for Age and started shorter than both so it's clear why she's the favoured of the three, but she does draw very wide here and will likely get a long way back again.
Opal Ridge heads the market and comes through the Dane Ripper. Much was made of her run and the ride there, forced to cover plenty of ground after drawing wide and staying wide. Better there than last, but it is easy to say she wins with a slightly more economical run.
Drawn kinder here, I'd expect she gets the run of things in the first half of the field and that gives her an immediate edge over most, but she does still need a career best here. She ran to 111+ in her win at Scone two back which suggested she was right up to winning this, but she'd need to produce at least that to be a winner.
I think there's some value to be had outside of the trendy favourites, with the race looking to set up well for those on speed.
Electric Girl is fresh up here since flopping badly in the All Aged on soft ground behind Giga Kick, but her first two runs in Sydney were very good. Ratings of 112 and 114, including a third to Artorius and Imperatriz (who would be odds-on here), coupled with the softest of draws and good ground have me thinking she's better than a 20-1 shot. The queries are there, but so are the figures, and the price.