STATS PROVE BARRIERS ARE GOLD FOR BABIES
HEROIC SON was somewhat of an outlier when he landed the prize on debut at Doomben last Saturday.
The Peter and Will Hulbert-trained son of HEROIC VALOUR was successful in the two-year-old event jumping from barrier nine.
He falls into a minority of horses able to overcome wide marbles over short courses at Doomben and Eagle Farm in the early juvenile events.
Since 2012, in two-year-old races through October, November and December at the two courses (in races up to, but not including 1200m), babies jumping from barriers one to six have won 79% of the races, despite making up only 64% of the runners.
Taking it further, barriers 1-4 have provided almost 55% of the winners, with just 43% representation. It’s a clear edge and is more pronounced pre-Christmas when the babies are at their most inexperienced.
The numbers still favour inside draws post-Christmas, but not to the same extent (barriers one to six equate to 70% of the winners and one to four 48%).
Those numbers leave the top fancies for Saturday’s two Eagle Farm juvenile events well placed.
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SPIRITED REPLACEMENT
MERRILY had been the early season barrier trial star among the two-year-olds here in Brisbane, winning both of her official hitouts by big margins.
So, it was disappointing to hear RadioTAB’s Steve Hewlett report this week the Steve O’Dea and Matt Hoysted-trained-filly had gone amiss and will be out until after the Magic Millions.
Baylee Nothdurft had been aboard in the two trial wins and was naturally disappointed she won’t get to showcase her talents pre-Christmas.
But you get the impression he is just as excited – or a tad more – by stablemate PALAZZO SPIRIT, the colt who likely runs favourite in the Basil Nolan Junior C&G Plate on Saturday.
This son of SPIRIT OF BOOM, who is from the former very good race mare Palazzo Pubblico, was given an easy time in his first trial before running away to win his second hitout easily, with the runner-up being HEROIC SON, who bounced off that to win at Doomben last week.
“He’s a very nice horse, he’s had the two trials. The first one was all about education, then the other day he won his trial pretty easily,” Nothdurft said.
“He’s a very forward two-year-old and he’s ready to go for Saturday and he’s got a nice barrier.
“All his trackwork suggests he’s pretty smart.”
Saturday’s race is named after the late Basil Nolan Junior, who tragically died on Melbourne Cup night 2018 after a farm accident at the family’s Raheen Stud. Widden Stud and the Nudgee College Old Boys have combined to honour Basil’s memory with this race.
I was lucky enough to get to know ‘Junior’ during my time at the Courier Mail and the stories about him are all true – he genuinely was one of the best people you could ever hope to meet, and his children continue the family tradition at Raheen, under the guidance of Basil Senior.
It was great to see the stud’s freshman sire HEROIC VALOUR get out of the blocks quickly with Heroic Son’s win last week.
BULL-ISH ABOUT PROSPECTS
SUNSHINE Coast trainer Stuart Kendrick doesn’t travel his horses out of turn, but when he does, he invariably has them running well in the big races.
With this in mind, BULLOO presents as a fascinating runner in Saturday’s G1 Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick.
Kendrick’s best result in a G1 race was CHARNLEY RIVER’s second in the 2016 J.J. Atkins and he would dearly love to break that duck.
He’s taken just three horses to G1 events in Sydney, and each has performed way above expectations.
His first was DOUBTFILLY, who produced a monster effort to run fourth at 100-1 in the 2012 Golden Slipper. His second G1 runner in NSW was ERIC THE EEL, who went out a $21 chance in the 2020 ATC Derby and for a few strides looked the potential winner before eventually winding up third.
Kendrick’s most recent foray was I’VE BEAN THERE, who snuck up on the inside to grab fourth in this year’s Champagne Stakes as a $61 chance.
“We haven’t been too far away. Hopefully Bulloo might be able to do it for us on Saturday,” Kendrick said.
“It’s always a throw at the stumps when you go to Sydney, but I think she deserves a chance and it’s probably not a vintage year on what we’ve seen so far. Not saying they won’t be, but on what we’ve seen so far, I think we can be competitive.”
Bulloo is a daughter of WRITTEN TYCOON and has stamina on her dams’ side, being from the family of Queensland Derby winner EAGLE WAY.
She was sharp enough to win a short course midweek race first-up before being forced into a leading role behind STARTANTES second up.
Last time out at Toowoomba, she settled a lot better and powered home to win the Guineas (1625m). Respected ratings analyst Daniel O’Sullivan noted her last 600m and 200m sectionals were the best of all runners at the meeting. Kendrick took confidence from the result of last week’s Flight Stakes where HINGED and STARTANTES filled the minor placings.
He is familiar with both, having bumped into Startantes with Bulloo and beaten Hinged with another of his runners, THE STIFMEISTER earlier in the year at Eagle Farm.
“If we take a line through I’ve Bean There, Hinged and Startantes, I don’t think we’re too far away,” he said.
“We took the blinkers off last start at Toowoomba and Andrew (Mallyon) said she settled a lot better, and she finished off well.
“She’s a big rangy filly. She settled really well in her work since Toowoomba, we’ve lengthened her work out and she’s done it well.”
This year marks 30 years since another Queenslander, KINJITE, won the Spring Champion for the late, great, Noel Doyle.
The race was also won by YANKEE ROSE in 2016, by which time she was being trained on the Sunshine Coast by David Vandyke.
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CHASING THE EAGLE COMES AT A PRICE
JIMMY Byrne described last year’s quarantine fortnight as a torture test, so is naturally gun shy about the prospect of doing it again, but a big performance by APACHE CHASE in Saturday’s Nudgee College Old Boys Cup could see him giving it serious consideration again.
Trainer Desleigh Forster is plotting a path to this month’s Golden Eagle and a re-match with Apache Chase’s Queensland Guineas conqueror PRIVATE EYE.
But first he has to get past EMERALD KINGDOM – off an eight-length trial win on Tuesday – and Winx Guineas winner OUR PLAYBOY at Eagle Farm this weekend.
The latter is also a potential Golden Eagle contender.
Byrne makes a case to say Apache Chase was a shade unlucky not to beat Private Eye, and after winning the Weetwood first-up at Toowoomba, the multiple Premiership winning rider considers the four-year-old a better prospect this time around.
“He’s a lot more mature. Previously he was getting out and high-balling it. It was great to see him win the Weetwood, but it was the way he did it, he was able to sit off the leaders,” Byrne said.
“We got that nice smooth run and were able to put the pressure on when we needed to.
“It gives me a great deal of confidence knowing that if something did go wrong, you can take the sit on him.”
With Private Eye winning the Epsom and AYRTON (who Apache Chase beat in the Fred Best Classic) being among the top few in Golden Eagle betting before going amiss, Byrne says there is no reason Forster shouldn’t be aiming at the rich race at the end of this month.
“Private Eye probably shouldn’t have beaten him in the Guineas. I had a horse soften (Apache Chase) up from the 1000m home,” he said.
“Looking at the formline now, through Private Eye and Ayrton, those two horses would measure up in any Golden Eagle.”
As for a potential quarantine stint to stick with Apache Chase in the Eagle?
Byrne is adopting a wait and see approach with regards to this weekend, being already acutely aware of the fortnight locked up, having done it after partnering ROTHFIRE in Sydney 12 months ago.
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GUINEAS ALWAYS HAS EDGE ABOUT IT
ALPINE EDGE was stiff as a board in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude a few weeks back, but with the arrival of the silk department from Sydney, is being given scant chance by the market in the G1 Guineas this weekend.
Not that being an outsider should concern connections – the Guineas is one race that can produce an upset, with five double-figure winners (including MIGHTY BOSS at 100-1) in the past 18 years.
Like the Spring Champion, the Guineas was also home to a Queensland-trained winner 30 years ago when Bruce McLachlan’s CHORTLE landed at 15-1 for Brian York.
Queensland also ‘won’ the race in 2000, when SHOW A HEART was promoted following the disqualification of SKALATO.
Two years ago, David Vandyke and Ryan Maloney had the race all parceled up until SUPER SETH arrived in the last stride to deny ALLIGATOR BLOOD.
BEST BETS AT EAGLE FARM
Sienna’s Choice, R5, $7.50
Guntantes/Safado, R9, $7.50/$11