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Form Analysis: Albion Park Jul 09

9 July 2022

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RACE ONE

The bubble may not have fully burst in the JILLIBY KUNG FU (13) return, but it certainly may have a thin spot after his defeat last week. 2 from 2 in his comeback and looking for the threepeat, after finding the front early, it was handed over and from there could only manage a 5th. The gate does not help but look for the bounce back factor.

MAKE MINE MEMPHIS (9) was soon buried from inside the second line last time before charging home when the gaps arrived to be just a half-head from the winner. Not far away the start prior in the Redcliffe Cup after a sketchy start, with the right trail he can be closing out to challenge.

IT AINT THE MONEY (7) was revved up in the early stages and found the front from wide out. Once in control, he kept it rolling in front to hold on for the prize. He can press on again to feature.

CRUNCH TIME (4) was soon locked away from gate 1 over the mile last toe out and made some closing metres when 3 from IT AINT THE MONEY. His record at this trip is concerning.

SELECTIONS: JILLIBY KUNG FU (13), MAKE MINE MEMPHIS (9), IT AINT THE MONEY (7), CRUNCH TIME (4)
SUGGESTED BET: JILLIBY KUNG FU (13) to win

 

RACE TWO

Tricky map here where all the power looks to be out the back. Big in defeat last week CRIME WRITER (11) was sent forward to sit parked and was grinding it out all the way to the wire to be just 5m in arrears of ROCKIN MARTY. A neck from SEBS CHOICE three runs back, he can overcome the alley.

ROCKIN WITH ELVIS (8) will be requiring a slice of luck at some stage to get open space at his first look at The Creek. A Menangle winner over the 2300m two runs back when swooping over the top to arrive, his last outing was a forget effort after finishing down the line. He will be probing.

OBI ONE (2) broke a hoodoo on this deck when claiming a qualifier three runs back and backed it up with another win here last week from the pocket trail. With the good alley, he is right in the fight.

DELIGHTFUL DUDE (9) was asked to do too much last week when wide for a long way from gate 7, with the tough trip taking its toll. He can press through to get a spot and make a play.

SELECTIONS: CRIME WRITER (11), ROCKIN WITH ELVIS (8), OBI ONE (2), DELIGHTFUL DUDE (9)
SUGGESTED BET: CRIME WRITER (11) to win

 

RACE THREE

Building towards a victory after two handy efforts in Qld, PERFECT CUT (1) franked the assessment when dictating to an all the way win in a new career PB last time out. Never in danger once in front, he comes up with the ideal gate to search for a repeat and gets his chance.

GENERAL MONTANA (8) fired off the arm from gate 1 in a strong 70 Final last time out, the price for the lamp lighting duties of a 55.6 opening half proving too costly. Down the line behind MAJOR JELLIS two starts back, conditions look more favourable here and he can be ready to strike.

SOHO ALMASI (3) has been disappointed this campaign, going under a deep into the red first up and then finishing out of the money in both runs since. Settling handy to the action gives her place hopes.

HEZ DUSTY (2) arrives for a winter trip for Brad Hewitt, bringing a tidy last start 3rd at Menangle where he found the line in smart fashion. The good alley keeps him in calculations.

SELECTIONS: PERFECT CUT (1), GENERAL MONTANA (8), SOHO ALMASI (3), HEZ DUSTY (2)
SUGGESTED BET: PERFECT CUT (1) to win

 

RACE FOUR

Impressing in both starts in this series, DOFF YOUR CAP (14) can defy the 30m handicap as he was able to in the first round heat over this journey. Saved for one run in that contest, he powered up wide off the track to take a smart win before grafting it out when sitting parked in the second round.

LOTAMUSCLE (13) looked set to improve through the Series after coming into it after one run back from a spell. Moving around to sit parked in each round of heats, the first round over this trip was a handy effort when holding on for 2nd. With the right trip, he can be ready to make the challenge.

GLOBAL FLIGHT (7) was a stylish winner in the first round when looking in all sorts of bother hemmed away until letting down strongly to arrive in smart fashion. Looking ready to pounce in the second round when throwing it away, he can bounce back with vengeance.

RILEY MOMENT (1) is usually a safe starter and comes up with all the options from the inside lane to be in the right position. Taking them all the way in the 2138m heat, she looks to get her chance.

SELECTIONS: DOFF YOUR CAP (14), LOTAMUSCLE (13), GLOBAL FLIGHT (7), RILEY MOMENT (1)
SUGGESTED BET: DOFF YOUR CAP (14) to win

 

RACE FIVE

With a Derby campaign on the horizon, inside the second line for CANTFINDABETTORMAN (2) at his first Aus appearance looked a challenge. Eased back early to avoid the pocket, he was off and around them, taking control and never in danger thereafter with a 17m margin. From the gate, this looks at his mercy.

SAGINAW (13) has been kept fresh since his last victory which was on this deck back in early June. Overcoming gate 7 after easing to the rear before charging home in that contest, he has a strong closing burst and with a genuine tempo in this contest, he can be winding up for a closing challenge.

SO AM I (1) looks set to enjoy an economical trip in behind the action. A beaten fav last time out when chasing behind BLACK HAWK JOE, he was game in defeat the start prior when parked.

LAMANDIER (5) scored an easy qualifying win at Redcliffe two starts back and then last start angled to the poles from the second line before grabbing 3rd behind OBI ONE. In this line up he has claims.

SELECTIONS: CANTFINDABETTORMAN (2), SAGINAW (13), SO AM I (1), LAMANDIER (5)
SUGGESTED BET:­ CANTFINDABETTORMAN (2) to win

 

RACE SIX

With further benefit from his victory here last week, SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS (3) is building big momentum into this Constellations Carnival. Arriving in the last stride when first up over the 2680m, he sprinted sharply and never looked in danger last time when arriving at the mile. The threepeat is on.

CRUZ BROMAC (4) set the speed last time out in the Golden Mile but could not sustain the tempo, holding on for 3rd. Runner-up the start prior from gate 9, he should take strip fitter following two runs back from a spell and lands the gate to fire the early bullets to secure a challenging position.

MACH SHARD (13) gets behind the start car for the first time in Brisbane after his three runs have all been from the tapes. Big in defeat when three-wide the last lap and only 3m from SEBS CHOICE in the Redcliffe Cup, he will be tracking into this.

MAJESTIC CRUISER (8) has not had much go his way in two runs back from his successful NZ campaign and again cops a tough alley where he looks set to be buried. He will be probing for a way clear.

SELECTIONS: SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS (3), CRUZ BROMAC (4), MACH SHARD (13), MAJESTIC CRUISER (8)
SUGGESTED BET: SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS (3) to win

 

 

RACE EIGHT

One of the first invites for this race was delivered to BETTER ECLIPSE (13) following his Chariots of Fire victory back in Feb which he followed with a charging 3rd in the Miracle Mile. Opening the pipes with an effortless trial on Tuesday, it will be a big ask to defy the gate, but where the tempo should be genuine throughout, he can descend.

LADIES IN RED (3) comes into this battle with an amazing record and will also be tackling the race fresh up since the APG mares Final back in May where she was beaten a neck. Kept tuned with a series of sizzling trial workouts, this mare is all class and should be able to find a position close enough to challenge.

LEAP TO FAME (2) will also be lining up here first up, his last outing a NSW Derby victory when powering over the top with ease to take an 11m victory. He has the advantage over some of the other big guns being a nine-time winner on this deck and he can be close enough to strike.

BIG WHEELS (10) was buried in the run during last week’s Queensland Sun and was rattling home in the closing stages when sighting gaps. This is the next step up but chasing the tempo he can join in.

SELECTIONS: BETTER ECLIPSE (13), LADIES IN RED (3), LEAP TO FAME (2), BIG WHEELS (10)
SUGGESTED BET: BETTER ECLIPSE (13) to win

 

 

RACE NINE

Unable to snare a decent marble in these bigger races, SUMOMENTSOMEWHERE (10) has to negotiate the second line for this battle. Making the three-wide move to get closer to the action in last week’s Qld Sun, the run was solid when 9m in arrears. Better tempo this time can see him arrive.

TIMS A TROOPER (1) was in the prefect position to pounce in the Redcliffe Derby and when asked to let down, had the closing power to arrive. Grabbing the bronze in the Qld Sun last week after being hemmed away on the poles, a similar trip awaits here as he will be ready to take the closing shot.

BETTER ISOLATE (3) was first up in 12 months and returned in stylish order with a first up win at Horsham. Quickly putting three successive wins together, he wilted last start from gate 7 at Melton. He can bounce back hard in this.

TRIPLE FOUR (8) is 2 for 2 this season after claiming a big win here last week from gate 7 in trying to force his way into the Rising Sun. Missing the big one, he will be needing a slice of luck form this alley to find open space.

SELECTIONS: SUMOMENTSOMEWHERE (10), TIMS A TROOPER (1), BETTER ISOLATE (3), TRIPLE FOUR (8)
SUGGESTED BET:

 

RACE TEN

Returning from a spell here on Tuesday, SWEETPASSION (1) was in full control at the mile when leading from gate 1 and pulling clear with 12m to spare over his nearest danger. Not too far from them in the 2YO Vicbred Final at his last run before the break, he lands the alley and with the added fitness can look for a repeat.

DANGERZONE (5) was winding up in the closing stages in the Redcliffe Cup last time out and was just a half-head from the winner TIMS A TROOPER. Taking them all the way from gate 5 two runs back and turning over COVER GIRL, the gate is tricky but in the small field, he will be throwing it down.

MY ULTIMATE RONNIE (3) has returned from a spell in super order, going 3 for 3 in his 3YO term. Starting deep into the red in all three appearances, he might just have to do some work from this gate.

SELECTIONS: SWEETPASSION (1), DANGERZONE (5), MY ULTIMATE RONNIE (3)
SUGGESTED BET: SWEETPASSION (1) to win