Head-to-head analysis of the 2025 Golden Ticket

By Pat McLeod

The 2025 Group 2 Golden Ticket Final (520m) at Albion Park on Thursday night showcases the overpowering influence the visiting speed guns will have on the remainder of the Golden Greys Summer Carnival.

Six of the eight chasers involved in the unique match races are from interstate with the two locals at long odds to pull off an upset – Wreck James $17 and Danger Zone $26.

The indicators are that even more southern invaders will be here for the Group 1 Gold Bullion, with the heats on January 23 before the Final on January 30.

In early betting three Victorians are the focus with Smooth Plane (Thomas Dailly), the early favourite at $3.30 to grab the lucrative Golden Ticket on Thursday night, ahead of Lakeview Emily (Harley Whelan) $3.90 and Blue Kermaro (Joshua Formosa) $4.

There will be four, two-dog match races on Thursday night, with the finalists progressing from last week’s four-dog heats.

The winner with the fastest time will not only pick up $60,000, but also direct entry into the $250,000-to-the-winner Gold Bullion Final.

Queensland great Jay Is Jay won the past two Golden Tickets, gaining the 2023 ‘win’ by ballot after running the same time (29.52secs) as WA’s Throttle.

He won his 2024 match race in a sizzling 29.37.

The Golden Ticket match races analysis:

Match 1: 9.04pm – Danger Zone (Travis Elson) Box 1 vs Blue Kermaro (Joshua Formosa) Box 3:

Danger Zone comes into the opening showdown as a massive underdog. The Travis Elson chaser has one major asset, he is a brilliant beginner, but with a track and distance best of 29.99, that is unlikely to be enough. On the other hand, Blue Kermaro, comes with the reputation borne out of big wins and fast times. He is the reigning Million Dollar Chase champion and recently added the inaugural Ladbrokes Paul Wheeler Final, also over the Wentworth Park 520m. His best times include Wenty (29.37), Sandown (29.20) and The Meadows (29.64). He is a big race hunter with genuine speed. His 30.29 in running second to Warm Cockles in his track debut in last week’s heats can be written off as a learning experience on a very wet track.

Match 2: 9.17pm - La Sagrada (Krystal Shinners) Box 1 vs Wreck James (Darren Russell) Box 3:

Interesting. If there is a chance of a Rocky-type story on Thursday night for the locals, then this is it. After just 11 starts Darren Russell’s youngster Wreck James has shown that he has genuine ability. He has a 29.70 at headquarters and also has his preferred wider draw. He keeps improving, but can he improve enough on Thursday night? WA surprise packet La Sagrada oozes potential. She upset boom litter and kennel sister Miss Envy in the recent Bogie Leigh Futurity Final to announce her arrival as a major carnival player. She already boasts an Albion Park PB of 29.65. La Sagrada is priced at $6 to take out the ticket.

Match 3: 9.29pm – Warm Cockles (David Burnett) Box 1 vs Lakeview Emily (Harley Whelan) Box 3:

Two heavy hitters, both with a potential knockout run in them. Lakeview Emily is no stranger to the podium at Albion Park. She was beaten a length in running second to Jason Thompson’s Flying Zulu in the final of Queensland’s richest race, the Brisbane Cup, in July, last year. Interesting to note that the third-placed dog in that final was Good Odds Cobber. Lakeview Emily has an Albion Park best of 29.62, which will certainly be threatened in a two-dog clash. Warm Cockles was in Brisbane last year for the Young Guns and Flying Amy. He has a PB from back then of 29.86. Victorian trainer David Burnett was upbeat after last week’s heat win. “The dog has the ability to match it with the best,” he said. “On the night he can do anything if he wants to.”

Match 4: 9.41pm – Smooth Plane (Thomas Dailly) Box 1 vs Good Odds Cobber (Frank Hurst) Box 3:

Two hard, seasoned, class campaigners who are worthy main event combatants. Smooth Plane’s second to Explicit in the recent The Phoenix showed he is still a major threat in the top tier. Last week’s heat win over La Sagrada may have been in an unflattering 29.99, but it was the best time of the night in heavy rain. His best time in four outings at Albion is 29.92. Interestingly the NSW-based Good Odds Cobber has not been out of a placing in seven starts at ‘The Creek’, with three of those wins. He is coming back from a slight injury, but as care-taker trainer for the heats, Dave Irwin, said: “If he's not the best going around at the moment, then he is knocking loudly on the door.” The only concern in this match-up is that Irwin said the dog’s preferred box was the one.