Form Analysis: Albion Park Jul 24

RACE TWO

The quasi-consolation of the Blacks A Fake is not made any easier by quite a few of these having never run 13 furlongs under race conditions. Besieged by tough gates since arriving in Qld SEND IT (6) was sectionally strong in the Rising Sun and then last start in the 4YO went sub 55 and sub 27 on the way home. If he can grab hold of any ounce of luck, he can descend on them.

ELLMERS IMAGE (1) lands a couple of advantages here with the gate being the obvious factor. A winner over this trip 3 starts back when taking his first look at the track is the second when taking them all the way and running a strong last 800m from the front. He has the all the options and can take luck out of the equation.

OUR UNCLE SAM (8) will be requiring some factors in his favour that will include early hustle to ensure he is not beaten by a front line in dropping in on him. Much sharper last start chasing over the mile, he will be fitter for the run and can be thereabouts.

BALRAJ (3) is still yet to land a victory in 2021 which presents an obvious query in this level. Runner-up over the mile behind COPY THAT 2 starts back, he faded last start over the 2138m. He will need to wind back the clock.

SELECTIONS: SEND IT (6), ELLMERS IMAGE (1), OUR UNCLE SAM (8), BALRAJ (3)
SUGGESTED BET: SEND IT (6) to win

RACE THREE

The lead time and opening quarter will be vital here and for the chances of ILIKEMEBETTOR (10) he will be hoping that they are sub 3.4 and 27.5. If the clock displays that for the first 600m, he comes right into the equation. Game in defeat in the Rising Sun Consolation, it followed successive wins at the 2138m trip. Just needs the early speed.

UNCLE SHANK (1) gives away some experience to his rivals with just the 6 career starts, yet he has shown he loves speed and has the gate to run it hard. A winner at 4 of those 6, his effort in the South East Derby was sound considering it was his first run beyond a mile. #LeaderPeter will want to go back-to-back in this race named after his Grandfather and he has the gate to capitalise.

KOWLASKI ANALYSIS (11) faces a big ask from outside the 2^nd line over the mile where the speed looks genuine. Making a mess of the Rising Sun, although there have been excuses in much stronger fields, he has not beaten a runner home his past 3 starts, which is of some concern.

ADAM CROCKER (6) tackled the 4YO Championship last start and from the pocket trail was only 5m from the winner SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS. Returning to the mile is more in his comfort zone and with there looking an absence of real early firepower, he might just shoot across early.

SELECTIONS: ILIKEMEBETTOR (10), UNCLE SHANK (1), KOWLASKI ANALYSIS (11), ADAM CROCKER (6)
SUGGESTED BET:

RACE FOUR

Those little legs sure can motor and they will need to again here for the bonny little mare PINK GALAHS (11) to remain undefeated in Qld. Taking her record since arriving to 3 from 3 last week, her DJA Final victory was without doubt the most impressive of the 3 to date. Despite the gate, it again looks to profile well for her with a genuine tempo and a likely cart home.

TOUGH MONARCH (13) has resumed from a spell in super form with successive wins over at Menangle, both when running some sharp fractions from the front. He will be working around them at some stage from the gate but his trial here on Tuesday suggests he is ready to throw down a big challenge.

MAJESTIC SIMON (1) only has the one mobile victory to his name but that came over the mile when charging across from gate 7 to lead and then powering home to a 25m margin. He has been off the 30m through the DJA and can give them a target to chase here.

RED CASTLETON (10) placed in both heat rounds of the DJA before not having much go his way in the final. With good speed when saved for a closing shot, the offer to dart down to the poles here for the easy trip looks enticing and he can chime in late.

SELECTIONS: PINK GALAHS (11), TOUGH MONARCH (13), MAJESTIC SIMON (1), RED CASTLETON (10)
SUGGESTED BET: PINK GALAHS (11) to win

RACE FIVE

A strong renewal of the Queensland Derby where just 2 of the 12 have ever raced over 13 furlongs. While many may not see that a concern KRUG (10) is one of those and also boasts victory in the NZ Derby at 2600m. He was gripping on in the Rising Sun when collared in the closing stages. Dominant at Redcliffe, back to his own age is ideal and he can defy the tough gate.

AMERICAN DEALER (2) claimed the South East Derby here last week and deserved all the plaudits after working hard in the run and covering plenty of the AP oval before digging in to fight off the challengers. He comes up trumps with a big advantage over his main dangers with this alley and settling at the pointy end will be up to the challenge.

CAPTAIN CRUSADER (13) has been strong to the line at his past 2 at big odds and lands another horrid gate here for the big one. Despite hitting the board at his past 8 in succession, he again comes up at big odds but he will not be far away.

BETTOR CALL ME (12) still only has the lone win next to his name, but he was again doing everything right here last week in the main lead up. Tucking in on the poles, he was strong late for 3^rd and with a cart home here can chime in.

SELECTIONS: KRUG (10), AMERICAN DEALER (2), CAPTAIN CRUSADER (13), BETTOR CALL ME (12)
SUGGESTED BET: KRUG (10) to win

RACE SIX

This race has been turned on its head with the barrier draw being particularly unkind to many in the field. Despite relying on some factors to fall in her favour SPORTY DANCER (8) looks to get the ideal opportunity to secure the big Oaks Double. Taking the trail after finding the pegs fist last week, she was able to finish over the top of them to score. Following the likely leader, she will be coiled.

SOHO BROADWAY (1) secures the ultimate turnaround in barriers after landing 13 here last week from outside the second line, she lands the ace here. With strong closing panels in last week’s lead in Oaks, she was making a stack of ground wide off the track to grab 3^rd. A strong winner 3 starts back over the Melton Sprint trip when leading throughout, she will be trying to fight them off.
 
MOMENTSLIKETHESE (6) was sectionally strong here last week when recording the quickest individual last 400m in the South East Oaks. Buried in the run from inside the 2^nd line, she faces another tough gate but with a slice of luck can be making a play.

ISLAND FIRE DANCE (9) is the newcomer to the field, heading North for Jason Grimson and bringing some hot form with her. A winner at her past 4 on the bounce, all over the mile in slick time, the longer trip could be a query but a soft trip could alleviate that.

SELECTIONS: SPORTY DANCER (8), SOHO BROADWAY (1), MOMENTSLIKETHESE (6), ISLAND FIRE DANCE (9)
SUGGESTED BET: Exotics 1-6-8-9

 

RACE SEVEN

He may have lost the battle last week but the King was might brave in defeat and this week Albion Park is set to once again be under his reign. Delivering perhaps one of his greatest ever runs despite the defeat KING OF SWING (1) probably gained more admirers than he lost. It is hard to see anything applying the blow torch and he looks set to be the dictator and wear the crown of the King.

EXPENSIVE EGO (10) enters this race with the same statistic that his superior stable mate brings to the battle- having tasted defeat here at The Creek for the first time at the previous start. Sent around them in the Rising Sun, he was in for the fight when 2m from the winner AMAZING DREAM. He probably moves around them early again here and riding shotgun outside the King will look to repel the challengers.

COPY THAT (5) earned the Sunshine Sprint last week with a tough run after rolling forward from gate 5 and controlling the race while sitting parked. Only beaten a head the start prior in the Rising Sun, he looks one of the biggest threats if there were to be any danger to the King.

TURN IT UP (8) after being shanghaied off the gate from outside the front last week to take control, he was still fighting late when 5m from the winner. He turns it around this week and will get the cold sit in the trail and can look to make a closing play. Looks a great drum runner here.

SELECTIONS: KING OF SWING (1), EXPENSIVE EGO (10), COPY THAT (5), TURN IT UP (8)
SUGGESTED BET: Exotics 1 / 5-8-9-10


 

RACE EIGHT

Six weeks ago DANGERZONE (8) looked the best of the lads in the 2YO ranks, but as can be the case with young horses, the gap is now non-existent. Forced to be driven tough when parked last week outside FUTURE ASSURED, he was in for the fight when 2m from the winner. That had followed a 3^rd placing and his first defeat. He gets an opportunity to strike up the lane.

CLASS TO THE MAX (1) was down the line last start but was exposed throughout and never moved closer than a length and a half of the leader. He took them all the way for a feature victory in the APG Gold Bullion in May before being beaten by the 2^nd line in the Breeders Classic. He gets every chance from the ace.

TEDDY DISCO (7) has landed the worst gate possible as he looks for his 2^nd G1 in 3 starts. Far too classy at Redcliffe in the Sales Final, he had too much speed for his rivals last start in the Paleface Adios. The barrier can be a great leveller, but he cannot be dismissed.

SPEAK THE TRUTH (6) is perhaps a level below some of these at present but has been showing progressive traits at each opportunity. Buried away last start in the Paleface Adios, there was a bit to like in how he found the wire. The gate is the big stinger, but he can chime in.


SELECTIONS: DANGERZONE (8), CLASS TO THE MAX (1), TEDDY DISCO (7), SPEAK THE TRUTH (6)
SUGGESTED BET:


 

RACE NINE

At the top of the tree as far as the fillies are concerned here in the Sunshine State CAT KING COLE (3) should appreciate 2 main factors for this assignment. Returning to her own sex after tackling the boys last week and the fact she will be tightened from that outing. Not entirely happy to be angled to the passing lane last week, when she finally knuckled down, she was charging.

RACY ROXY (2) made a mess of the start last time out in the Paleface Adios and finished at the rear. Being sent back to the trials to remove the ODM embargo, she has looked the clear second pick of the local fillies to date. Defeating the older horses 2 starts back when leading throughout, she can be first to the poles here in attempting to mount any form of challenge.

ROSES ARE SWEET (9) won the Breeders Classic consolation on debut and backed that up with a Redcliffe Sales heat win when 2^nd up. Only 6m from TEDDY DISCO in the Final when holding 3^rd after losing all momentum, she is a huge place prospect here.

GOLDIES A DELIGHT (10) has not been seen since the Breeders Classic when midfield behind CAT KING COLE. The gate is not ideal but she can be chiming into the money in the closing stages.

SELECTIONS: CAT KING COLE (3), RACY ROXY (2), ROSES ARE SWEET (9), GOLDIES A DELIGHT (10),
SUGGESTED BET: ROSES ARE SWEET (9) to place
 

RACE TEN

With an improved alley to take off from here, OHOKA CHOPPER (1) should get every chance to capitalise here. Only a half-neck off victory here last week when starting from gate 6 and doing some work to press forward, it had followed a passing lane victory over this trip. This looks his to lose.

SPORTY AZZ (8) looks set to enjoy the perfect trip in behind the speed and be ready to take his shot when the passing lane arrives. His run had merit here last week when retreating to secure position before searching for gaps to offer. Lurking, he will be waiting to take the snipers shot on the Chopper.

OUR LADY LARA (9) eased from gate 7 here last week and never saw clear space to make a meaningful challenge yet was still within 5m of the winner. The pegs look the place to play here and she can chime in with the easy trip.

THE HERVEY BAY (6) started from the five-hole last start when pressing forward to sit parked and throw heat at the leader. Grinding it out in holding 3^rd when 2m from KEAYANG KREUZER, he can put to them again here.

SELECTIONS: OHOKA CHOPPER (1), SPORTY AZZ (8), OUR LADY LARA (9), THE HERVEY BAY (6)
SUGGESTED BET: OHOKA CHOPPER (1) and Exotics 1 / 6-8-9